Brokers said that the first half of the four quarter is still rebounding, the window is more importa 泉州纺织服装职业学院

Brokers said the first half of the four quarter is still rebounding window more attention to performance of stock price on the driving force of sina finance App: Live on-line blogger to guide the purchase of new shares: the stock market is the most simple way to pick up the money broker said the four quarter of the first half of the rally at the window still pay more attention to driving force on the stock price performance of the current market environment based on the fourth quarter, the first half of December is still rebounding window, need to closely track the Fed interest rate, exchange rate, enterprise profit potential changes in the "investor" Fang Fangwen long national day its strong market sentiment, the market end of the market in September to adjust the temperature and the way of a month, or 2.62% months, amplitude 4.6%. The fourth quarter begins. How will the October market go? Brokers have different opinions and investment proposals. Everbright and State Securities said that this year, the market from the valuation, profitability, capital three factors, A shares rebound logic is very clear. Based on the current market environment, tend to the fourth quarter of the first half of the rebound is still a window during the national day of the global risk appetite or slightly improved, and phase lead A shares, 12 month need to closely track the Fed meeting on interest rates, and potential changes in the enterprise profit. Societe Generale Securities said that the monetary policy is expected to cut interest rates in the year to reduce the probability is low, next year the general rate of monetary policy will still be "take the table" as the main, maintain relatively neutral. CPI is expected in 2017 before the low high, slightly lower than the central this year, compared to the PPI or stabilization. Money has not only flowed into the stock market, but it has also flowed into the housing market. In this regard, Haitong Securities prompted investors, the population structure determines China’s real estate cycle has passed, and since 2016, the real estate once again unpopular, including monetary and irrational factors. In view of the dependence of the economy on the real estate, we must strengthen the vigilance of the real estate bubble. Where is the investment opportunity for the fourth quarter? Everbright Securities said that in the context of the basic valuation risk controllable, more attention to the performance of the driving force of the stock price. All sorts of stock assets are listed as follows: growth stock > sub IPO > value stock > cyclical stock. Haitong Securities said that the current market will continue to shake the city pattern, the better industry, such as animal husbandry, tourism, food and beverage, chemical pharmacy. Industry research bottom-up selection of sub industries are: feed, high-quality scenic spots + outbound travel + hotel, high-end liquor and beer, chemicals export class. Everbright Securities: Securities Kanpan – the first half of the fourth quarter still rebound window Everbright Securities said that since January 29, 2016 8 months, A stock market rebounded a slight concussion. Industry sector performance, in addition to the media sector, the 28 industry index all rise. Among them, home appliances, food, beverages, electronics and other consumer industries and building materials, nonferrous metals, chemical industry and other cyclical industries rose relatively leading, media, military, computer and other high valuation plate relatively backward performance. From the contribution of index change to the overall market, banks, non silver and other weight plates contribute significantly. From the three factors of valuation, profit and capital, the logic of market rebound is very clear. Based on the current market environment, we tend to think that the first half of the fourth quarter is still on

券商称四季度前半段仍处反弹窗口 更看重业绩对股价的驱动力 新浪财经App:直播上线 博主一对一指导 新股申购:股市最简单捡钱方式   券商称四季度前半段仍处反弹窗口 更看重业绩对股价的驱动力   基于目前的市场环境,四季度前半段仍处反弹窗口,12月开始需密切跟踪美联储议息、汇率、企业盈利方面的潜在变化   《投资者报》高方方 文   国庆长假令市场观望情绪浓厚,市场以一种温和的调整方式结束了9月行情,月跌幅为2.62%,月振幅为4.6%。   四季度开始了,10月行情怎么走?券商们给出了不同的观点和投资建议。   光大及国金证券表示,今年市场从估值、盈利、资金三个因素看,A股反弹逻辑十分清晰。基于目前的市场环境,倾向于四季度前半段仍是反弹窗口,国庆期间全球市场风险偏好或小幅提升,进而阶段性带动A股,12月开始需密切跟踪美联储议息、汇率、企业盈利方面的潜在变化。   兴业证券表示,货币政策上,预计年内降息降准概率均较低,明年货币政策大概率仍将以“搭台子”为主,保持相对中性。预计2017年CPI前低后高,中枢略低于今年,PPI同比或趋稳。   货币资金不光流入了股市,也有大量资金也流入了房市。对此,海通证券提示投资者,人口结构决定我国地产大周期已过,而2016年以来地产再次火爆,其中有货币和非理性因素。考虑到经济对地产的依赖性,必须对地产泡沫加强警惕。   四季度的投资机会在哪儿?光大证券表示,在估值风险基本可控背景下,更看重业绩对股价的驱动力。各类股票资产排序为:成长股>次新股>价值股>周期股。海通证券表示,当前的市场将持续震荡市格局,较优行业如牧业、旅游、食品饮料、化学制药。行业研究自下而上精选子行业分别是:饲料、优质景区+出境游+酒店、高端白酒和啤酒、化学制剂出口类。■   券商看盘   光大证券:   四季度前半段仍是反弹窗口   光大证券表示,2016年1月29日至今的8个月时间里,A股市场小幅震荡反弹。行业板块表现方面,除传媒板块外,28个行业指数悉数上涨。其中,家电、食品饮料、电子等消费行业与建材、有色、化工等周期行业涨幅相对领先,传媒、军工、计算机等高估值板块表现相对落后。从指数涨跌对整体市场的贡献来看,银行、非银等权重板块贡献明显。   从估值、盈利、资金三个因素看,市场反弹逻辑十分清晰。基于目前的市场环境,倾向于认为四季度前半段仍是反弹窗口,12月开始需密切跟踪美联储议息、汇率、企业盈利方面的潜在变化。在当前的经济背景下,市场预期无风险利率和企业盈利发生剧烈波动的概率相对有限,所以A股或许也就被困在了这个相对较窄的区间内运行。   目前沪深300隐含股息回报率和无风险收益率比值基本处于2012年以来的区间中枢,这一区间大约对应上证综指(2600~3300点)的波动范围;今年以来,创业板一直在“以时间换空间”,预计2017年中期左右创业板相对于沪深300的估值将回归至2013年年初水平。   A股资金面中长期大概率将处于均衡或小增量格局,潜在增量资金主要包括:1.随着A股开放度的逐步提升,相对更加认可A股市场价值的海外资金;2.基金发行规模趋稳,存量资金边际加仓;3.保险、产业资本等中长线资金的配置需求。   整体而言,在估值风险基本可控背景下,更看重业绩对股价的驱动力。各类股票资产排序为:成长股>次新股>价值股>周期股。   国金证券:机会大于风险   国金证券表示,我们倾向于国庆期间全球市场风险偏好或小幅提升,进而阶段性带动A股。沪深交易所于10月1日至10月9日期间休市。不过,“港股”、“美股”以及“欧洲股市”仍将于“10月3日至10月7日”正常交易。   全面梳理十一国庆长假预期事件,A股休市期间,我们认为,对市场风险偏好影响大的权重事件依次为:1.国内房地产销售、旅游景区是否会迎来“金九银十”,国内房地产销售情况、旅游景区景气度或将迎来“国庆黄金周”。在房地产涨价预期并未完全“退烧”的大背景下,预计房地产销售大概率将迎来一轮“金九银十”的局面。如果房地产市场“高烧不退”,边际上资金会从A股市场流向房地产市场;2.欧洲银行业是否会爆发“黑天鹅”事件;3.10月7日美国9月非农就业;4.10月2日,匈牙利就欧盟难民配额制举行公投。总之,我们倾向于国庆期间全球市场风险偏好或小幅提升,进而阶段性带动A股。   海通证券:   消费类业绩确定性的优势更强   海通证券表示,A股牛熊市涨跌90%来自估值波动,震荡市盈利增长对冲估值下移,今年行情再次得到验证。当前的市场将持续震荡市格局,策略横向比较盈利与估值匹配度,较优行业如牧业、旅游、食品饮料、化学制药。行业研究自下而上精选子行业分别是:饲料、优质景区+出境游+酒店、高端白酒和啤酒、化学制剂出口类。   2016年震荡市中,估值适中、增速较快、匹配度佳的公司涨幅更好。震荡市中业绩为王,2016年至今的市场中,估值适中(PE20-50倍),净利润增速较好(大于20%),估值与业绩匹配度(PEG 0-2)较佳的股票涨幅更好。   采用统计局公布的2012年中国投入产出表进行测算,发现房地产(服务业)和建筑业(剔除土木工程建设)直接和间接创造的经济需求占我国GDP的27%。今年上半年6.7个百分点的经济增长中,有33%亦即2.2个百分点是由房地产和建筑业拉动的。可以说,经济对地产依赖程度非常大。但人口结构决定我国地产大周期已过,而2016年以来地产再次火爆,其中有货币和非理性因素。考虑到经济对地产的依赖性,必须对地产泡沫加强警惕。■ 新浪声明:此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体,新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的,并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作,风险自担。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: