Market risk falls, stock market will continue to rise – Sohu securities-木村kaela

When the market risk falls, the stock market will continue to rise – Sohu securities credit data exceeded expectations, the stock index was boosted, after the Spring Festival, the domestic market showed a low trend. By the external market lower impact, the Shanghai Composite Index in the first trading day after the holiday opened 2.84%, Shenzhen stock index opened down 2.98%, the gem is a decrease of 3.22%. But then the stock market rebound, while benefiting from outside the precious metal prices rebounded sharply, the domestic gold and nonferrous related sector gainers, market trading covering the gap. Tuesday’s credit data exceeded expectations, and the stock market moved up, close to 2850 points. During the Spring Festival, outside the stock market pudie. By the end of February 12th, the major stock index declines in Europe and America were about 3%, mainly based on the market slowdown and European bank profitability, anti risk ability concerns. The Nikkei index has fallen by as much as 11.1%, and the yen’s appreciation has left Japan with a bleak economic outlook and risky assets being sold off. After the domestic main stock index declines were about 3%, basically digested the external market information, because the last few days outside the bank shares rebounded, mainly to stabilize the stock, decrease the overall risk, gold highs showed haven demand temporarily come to an end, to reduce the impact of risk on the domestic city periphery field. Worries about liquidity tightening in the post holiday market have eased for the moment. On the exchange rate level, the devaluation pressure of RMB has been reduced in the short term. From the data point of view, China’s foreign exchange reserves continued to decrease by $99 billion 469 million to $3 trillion and 230 billion 893 million in January, which is slightly lower than the previous value. In addition, China’s exports in January fell by 11.2% year-on-year, imports fell by 18.8% in January, and trade surplus reached a record high of $63 billion 290 million. Import and export data in January were lower than market expectations, showing China weaker domestic demand, sluggish external demand, but a record trade surplus shows China still has a strong competitive advantage, the fundamentals do not support the RMB exchange rate weakened sharply, onshore and offshore exchange rate was up to around 6.5 since then. In addition, the dollar index weakened sharply during the Spring Festival, reducing the pressure of RMB devaluation. The short-term stabilization of the RMB exchange rate will help stabilize the expected depreciation of the market, ease the pressure of capital outflow and the downward pressure of domestic risk assets. In terms of credit, China’s M2, new RMB loans and social finance scale exceeded expectations in January. In January, M0 increased by 15.1% over the same period, mainly due to the Spring Festival approaching, cash demand led to the increase in cash circulation, this rule appeared during the Spring Festival in previous years. While the growth rate of M1 and M2 were 18.6% and 14% respectively compared to the same period, the growth rate for a new high in recent years, M1-M2 growth also expanded to 4.6%, because of demand deposits in M1 enterprises accounted for the main body, and M2 in household savings deposits accounted for relatively large, the difference between the growth rate of the expansion that the macroeconomic slowdown, credit continues increase. You can see that the new RMB loans also reached a record of 2 trillion and 510 billion yuan. Therefore, although this week there are 595 billion yuan reverse repurchase expires, but the credit data record that year after recovery liquidity concerns swept away, A shares rose sharply to show investors)

市场风险回落 股市或将连续大涨-搜狐证券   信贷数据超预期,股指受到提振  春节过后,国内市场呈现出低开高走态势。受到外围市场走低影响,上证综指在节后首个交易日低开2.84%,深证成指开盘下跌2.98%,创业板跌幅更是达到3.22%。但随后股市企稳回升,而受益于外盘贵金属价格大幅回升,国内黄金、有色相关板块涨幅居前,大盘尾盘回补跳空缺口。周二公布的信贷数据超出市场预期,股市受此提振走高,接近2850点区域。  春节期间,外盘股票市场普跌。截至2月12日收盘,欧美主要股指跌幅均在3%左右,主要基于市场对经济减速和欧洲银行盈利、抗风险能力的担忧。日经指数跌幅高达11.1%,日元升值使得日本经济前景堪忧,风险资产遭到抛售。节后国内主要股指的跌幅均在3%左右,基本消化了外围市场信息,由于近几个交易日外盘银行股回升,主要股指企稳,整体风险有所下降,金价高位回落显示出了避险需求暂时告一段落,外围市场风险对国内的影响降低。  节后市场流动性收紧的担忧暂时得以缓解。汇率层面上,人民币贬值压力短期有所减轻。从数据来看,1月中国外汇储备继续减少994.69亿美元至32308.93亿美元,这一数值略低于前值。此外,中国1月出口同比下滑11.2%,1月进口同比大降18.8%,贸易顺差632.9亿美元创纪录新高。1月进出口数据均低于市场预期,显示出中国内需走弱,外需低迷,但创记录的贸易顺差显示出中国仍然有较强的竞争优势,基本面并不支持人民币汇率大幅走弱,在岸及离岸汇率此后一度回升至6.5附近。此外,美元指数在春节期间的大幅走弱使得人民币贬值压力减轻。人民币汇率短期企稳有助于平稳市场贬值预期,缓解资本外流压力和国内风险资产的下行压力。  信贷方面,中国1月M2、新增人民币贷款与社融规模大超预期。1月M0同比增加15.1%,主要原因在于春节临近,取现需求导致流通中的现金增加,这一规律在往年春节期间均有出现。而M1和M2同比增速分别为18.6%和14%,增速均为近年来新高,M1-M2增速差也扩大至4.6%,由于M1中企业活期存款占主体,而M2中居民储蓄存款占比较大,这一增速差的扩大表明宏观经济增速放缓下,信贷投放在持续增加。可以看到,新增人民币贷款也达到创纪录的2.51万亿元。因此,虽然本周有5950亿元逆回购到期,但创纪录的信贷数据使得年后流动性回收的担忧一扫而空,A股以大幅上涨来表明投资者对数据的反应。  虽然M1同比增速与股票市场具有一定的相关性,但是同比增速的上升不一定意味着股票市场的周期性上涨。我们注意到,在M1同比增速上升至2010年12月来新高的同时,其环比增速却一直稳定在3%左右,1月M1高增速更多受到翘尾因素影响,因此当前市场的反应可能过于激烈。  央行行长周小川此前强调了宏观审慎政策,这表明虽然货币政策宽松空间打开,但是降准降息这类政策短期实施的概率较低,期望降低利率提升估值的空间不大,在上市公司业绩预告并不乐观的情况下,股票这类风险资产短期趋势性上涨难度较大,上证综指短期触碰2850点区域后会面临一定幅度回调。但考虑到市场整体风险的降低,股票短期下行空间相对有限,可等待大盘回调后,或者站稳2850点后入场。  (作者单位:国都期货)  作者:国都期货来源期货日报网)相关的主题文章: